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Uncertainty

Old Normal?? – Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #44 ~ March 6th

By Bob Stilger · Comments (0)
Wednesday, March 6th, 2013

I’ve been back in Japan for a couple of weeks, supporting our new Tohoku Futures Network.  It’s been nearly three months since my last report.  Time spent resting, thinking, and working to see next steps.  This year some of what I need to do is sensing some of the underlying patterns, trends and guideposts which can guide our work on transformative change.  I’ve recently done a bit of deeper writing which is available here:  http://bit.ly/Transform_JP.  It’s the start of the theory/meaning making side of a book I hope to write this year.

As has been the case on each of my trips, things continue to change.  In many parts of the region I hear people talking about how the creative space available post 3.11 is closing down. People are caught up more in their egos, their fears and their personalities.  The disasters opened a crack in the old system.  There’s been constant pressure to close the crack and to get back to the old normal — even if things weren’t working so well.  This sense of return to the old normal is much less present in Fukushima, where there’s not really any old normal to return to in the radiated parts of the province — but even there some of the cooperative attitudes are diminishing.

At one recent FutureSession on “natural energy” in Fukushima I my attention was drawn to several things:

  • The clear determination of those present to make a new future in Fukushima.
  • The detailed work, by many, on alternative energy sources — everything from solar-supported auqaponic and hydroponic growing systems for food to careful analysis of where wind and solar would work best.
  • A sense of  “stuckness” in terms of moving ahead with these different ideas, in part because they are not visible to many people.

Here’s what’s going on in Fukushima and across the region.  Funds which were available for the “emergency phase” are almost gone.  The clear focus and purposefulness of what needs to happen next that was present in the emergency phase is gone.  The NPOs and others supporting communities during the emergency phase are cutting back — in part because they don’t have funding and in part because they are not sure what to do.  Meanwhile, things are stabilized, but the “new now” has not come into form.  Many, many small scale initiatives and projects and small businesses have been launched.  The government is busy creating City Plans and other plans to which most people feel no connection.  Climate of cooperation is decreasing.

Last weekend I led a FutureSession with 20 or so people in their 20s and 30s who have been working in the region.  Initially they came as “right arm” fellows from ETIC.  They completed their internships of 3-12 months, and then have stayed on in the region.  They have a deep commitment to service in Tohoku.  The question we moved to very quickly in the weekend is “how do we do our work now?”  We listened, we talked, we spent time in silence and we worked with play doh to help find answers.  They are amazing, committed people.

Part of what is needed is personal practice — learning to be in what I now think of as the dance of intention and surrender:  having deep and clear intention and surrendering time and time again to how this will manifest in the world.  Holding the intention while surrendering certainty about the path forward. At one point during the weekend, after a Skype with my spouse Susan Virnig, I followed Susan’s suggestion and got the six women present together in a group.  Later my interpreter told me one of the interesting things they talked about was that they were hearing men frequently say we need to get a woman on this team.  This is just astonishing in Japan where there are still pretty strong gender boundaries.  I think it speaks to men seeing the capacities women bring to be with the work in a more relational way.

Another part is learning how to work collectively with a view of how change can happen.  I’m hesitant to call this a theory of change because that always sounds so pretentious.  At least in my case, I can claim to have some ideas about how change happens, but not much more.   I’ve had so much chance over the last three years to work with so many different people here in so many contexts and have had the chance to bring the ideas about change that we developed in the first decade of this century at The Berkana Institute.  Part of what I am called to do this year is to combine the stories I have been writing in this Resilient Japan blog with some more theoretical framing like I started with  http://bit.ly/Transform_JP.

The next thing I am focusing on this year is how to bring in new knowledge and perspective in ways that support rather than overwhelm people in local communities.  FutureCenters seem to be an ideal place for mixing outside and inside knowledge.  We’re working on three ideas:

  • Last week some of us gathered to consider whether or not a Transformative Scenario Planning approach might be helpful.  Those are big words.  What they really mean is gathering diverse people together to think about what could be and how we would act to create it.  It may be that this approach of developing New Stories might be helpful.  We’re looking closely at it, studying Adam Kahane’s work together, and looking at some work beginning in May which might lead into an event in November introducing transformative scenario planning.
  • Over the last handful of years there has been a growing Transition Town movement in Japan.  A friend of mine, Hide Enomoto, introduced Transition Towns in Japan and speaks about them a bit on a video.  Next week Hide and I are convening a small meeting of some of the leadership from Transition Towns in Japan with some people from the Tohoku Futures Network on how this learning might be shared.
  • Finally, I’m working with several different business groups around the question of how businesses can form new partnerships in Tohoku.

All of these take a lot of patience.  Frequently, I use a small turtle here as a talking piece.  It helps me remember that we have to go slow at first in order to go fast later on.

There’s a lot moving in Japan right now.  What happens, how we proceed, is one of those ongoing mysteries.  Next week is the second anniversary of the disasters.  I’m sure I’ll be writing more.

Blessings,

Bob

Comments (0)
Categories : Resilient Japan Blog
Tags : Future Centers, Japan, Uncertainty

The Kamaishi Miracle– Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #43 ~ December 10th

By Bob Stilger · Comments (3)
Sunday, December 9th, 2012

You’ll find a lot of references if you Google “The Kamaishi Miracle,” so I’ll keep this really short.  It’s just an important story to remember.

Kamaishi is a costal town in Iwate Prefecture.  The most northern province affected by last year’s triple disaster.  Fewer school children died there than in other coastal towns. Why?

The teachers in Kamaishi decided that they ways in which the government taught about disaster preparedness wasn’t good enough.  They came up with their own approach — which itself is a bit of a miracle.  They drilled students with three principles and one teaching from ancient wisdom.  Simple.  Direct.  Easily remembered.

The principles were:

  • Don’t make any assumptions
  • Do your best
  • Go as quickly as you can

The ancient wisdom was don’t look for your family.

Don’t make any assumptions means among other things, don’t believe what you hear: use your own eyes and senses.  Do your best is a reminder to keep going.  Children made their way up away from the ocean with each other.  Pausing to look and to talk with each other about whether they had gone far enough.  Three times they paused, and then kept going.  And they went quickly.

The ancient wisdom is a hard one.  What’s been learned over centuries is that people die because they go looking for their family.  What’s essential is that everyone trust that everyone else will follow the three principles as well

Principles and ancient wisdom help us organize to do what’s needed when we confront any situation.  They sure helped in Kamaishi!

And here is a recent  YouTube Video  with the story

Blessings,

Bob

Comments (3)
Categories : Resilient Japan Blog
Tags : Japan, Uncertainty

Hospicing Stories of Fear, Midwiving Stories of Possibility — Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #42 ~ December 9th

By Bob Stilger · Comments (0)
Sunday, December 9th, 2012

Dear Friends,

Earlier this week I was invited to have dinner with Peach Heart’s founders.  A year ago five young women created Peach Heart because they felt young women in Fukushima needed support in speaking their truths to each other.  There’s so much uncertainty for young women and so hard to share either grief or hopes.  Should I leave or stay?  Will make a marriage? Do I dare to have children?  What life do I want?

Funny how synchronicity works.  On the way to Fukushima from Kyoto I was having an e-mail exchange with a friend and colleague about some of the information he’s sharing to his e-list about Fukushima.  I’m somewhat skeptical of the value of sharing statistics from Fukushima.  I think they are misleading and just generate more fear.  I’m reminded of a something my dear friend Robert Theobald used to say:  when information doubles, knowledge halves and wisdom quarters.  There’s much, much more information from Fukushima than there is knowledge or wisdom.

One Peach Heart founder, Chika, is a television personality who now lives in Sapporo to the north.  Chika was raised in Fukushima, and will not live here now. She visits frequently. Chiemi was born and raised here and feels called to work to support the people who could not leave, even if they wanted to.  Maki was evacuated to the province to the south.  She found a way to move back because she wanted to organized a way for the voices of young women from Fukushima to be heard in Japan and the world. They are very close friends.

Chika just  recently returned from a visit to Chernobyl.  Even before her trip she had been urging the others to leave.  Her visit to Chernobyl was painful and shocking and she is even more convinced that they should leave.  They don’t plan on leaving,  They don’t want to hear her stories from  Chernobyl.  Their response is painful for Chika; it also leaves her unsure about what information she should share in what ways on television as well.

As with many aspects of life in Fukushma, it’s complicated!

Part of the complication, of course, is that knowledge and wisdom are needed more than information.  Information tends to be misleading.  How are Chernobyl and Fukushima similar and how are they not?  What important differences exist between Japanese and Ukraine cultures?  What more do we know now than was know 25 years when Chernobyl exploded?  Undoubtedly there are things for people in Fukushima to learn from Chernobyl, but what are they?

There have been some statistics floating around the Internet about incidence of thyroid problems in children in Fukushima.  I haven’t been able to tell where then samples were taken.  It makes a bigs difference.  Fukushima is a big province with high mountains.  Where you live in Fukushima makes a big difference.  There are three regions — costal, middle and mountains.  The coastal has the greatest amount of radiation.  Even there, as in other areas, there are hot spots and cold spots.  Which information is relevant, in what ways, when and where?

Chika, Miki and Chiemei keep talking.   Will Chika be accused of withholding information if she doesn’t tell everything she knows?  When is it better to remain silent?  Is telling the truth the same as telling everything you know?

We talked about how when one tries to convince another of the wrongness of the other’s position, the other often just digs in her or his heels and refuses to budge.  Is it sufficient just to speak our own truth — and our own hopes and fears and aspirations — each each other, without an intent to change the mind of the other?

The next day I was at Renshoan, a powerful place of beauty near Koriyama:  http://bit.ly/Renshoan.  We ended up being in this same conversation.  It took some interesting turns.  Junko, the guardian of Renshoan, suggested that we each choose to live in a story of fear or a story of possibility.  When we live in a story of fear, we attract that reality and the information that supports it.  When we live in a story of possibility, we attract that reality.  Of course, we are informed by information from around us, but are choices are rarely based on that information.  Our conversation reminded me of a quote from Einstein:  problems which exist at one level of consciousness aren’t resolved at a deeper level of consciousness so much as they become irrelevant.  Does the story of possibility come from a deeper level of consciousness?

I have a greater sense of personal danger when I am in Johannesburg than when I am in Fukushima.  AND I also know there are things I can do in both places which will put me in lesser or greater risk.  Which will cause more deaths — radiation in Fuksushma, HIV/AIDS, smoking, driving while intoxicated, breathing polluted air, riding a bike in urban traffic? How is the story of HIV/AIDS in Africa similar to the story of radiation in Fukushima?  Can people learn to live here in healthy and safe ways.

We continued to talk about these same themes later that day in Minamisoma.  Just before we arrived for an evening FutureCenter session, the biggest nearby quake since 3.11 struck.  Minamisoma is about 3 miles inland from the coast and 15 miles from the Fukushima reactors.  The quake’s epi-center was 150 miles off the coast and 7.3 in magnitudeqays off.  We arrived to muted conversation as well as laughter.  There were tsunami warnings. Had the earthquake damaged the Fukushima reactors?  Was more radiation coming their way? Would a tsunami come?  Suddenly, we were in the middle of the reality these wonderful folks live with each day.  There is no certainty. About 20 of us were there.  What should we do?  We wanted to stay together.  A decision was made, quickly, to begin a FutureSession.  If we received an alert, we can take immediate action.  But, since we’re here, let’s talk.

The magic of the circle worked for me.  My own anxiety had been rising.  As we sat and checked in with each other, I came back to being myself.  The alert passed.  There was no major tsunami this time.  We had a powerful evening, talking about how to live with uncertainty.

Now, just today, I’ve finished a day long FutureSession in Koriyama about how make it safe for children to play.  One person shared something which was particularly striking to me.  He talked about the changes over the last 30 years in terms of play for children.  Compared to the 70s and 80s, children just don’t play outside anymore.  They consume manufactured toys, sit alone in front of their TVs with GameBoys, go to structured activities that have most minutes of the day scheduled.  This person went on to say that this is catastrophic in its consequences.  We will lose more and more health, he suggested.  He went on to say that we have to reverse this pattern in Fukushima because it is even more important here that children play and exercise as they did 30 years ago.  Yes we have radiation.  That means, especially, that we need to find safe ways for our children to play outside.

All of this makes me come back to stories.  The story of fear and the story of possibility.

One thing I see is a lot of fear outside of Fukushima about Fukushima.  Sometimes it  almost seems to make people here scapegoats, or try to treat them as misguided and misinformed.  Let me tell you — there was nothing misguided or misinformed about the people I was with today.  I get pissed off when I view some of the video clips circulating.  One makes fun of a fictional character — a comic book hero — who is telling people to do their best.  How dare these outside critics make fun of a situation and a culture they don’t understand?  Do they know that loss of hope is more deadly than radiation?  Why do they think it is appropriate for them to pass judgments and suggest that people here must just be too stupid to understand the danger?

This is a complex situation.  It is always changing.  It is always uncertain.  Observations from outside the system are often valuable — but only when they are offered with respect, curiosity and generosity.  Judgments are not helpful.  Criticism is not helpful.  Information which is not yet knowledge is not useful.  Where else is this true.

I go home to the US in two days and soon I have at least one more blog to write — this one about the situation for people in temporary housing.  I’ve just spent five powerful days in Fukushima.  The people here are heroes for me.  I’m so honored to live and learn and work with them — and, I’m pretty tired.  On my way home to Kyoto for a final couple of days.

With gratitude,

Bob

Comments (0)
Categories : Resilient Japan Blog, Uncategorized
Tags : Fear, Japan, Possibility, Uncertainty

The Three Muses by acidlullaby (acidlullaby.deviantart.com)

"Who knows where inspiration comes from. Perhaps it arises from desperation. Perhaps it comes from the flukes of the universe, the kindness of the muses."
- Amy Tan

"They are all of one mind, their hearts are set upon song and their spirit is free from care. He is happy whom the Muses love. For though a man has sorrow and grief in his soul, yet when the servant of the Muses sings, at once he forgets his dark thoughts and remembers not his troubles. Such is the holy gift of the Muses to men."
- Hesiod

Other Posts:

  • Otsuchi Flowers Rebuild Community: Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #47 ~ March 15th
  • World Carfe – Transition Towns in Japan: Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #46 ~ March 13th
  • Getting to a new WE: Beyond the Categories– Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #45 ~ March 7th
  • Old Normal?? – Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #44 ~ March 6th
  • The Kamaishi Miracle– Bob Stilger’s Notes from Japan #43 ~ December 10th

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